Will this Tuesday prove a turnaround one?
The idea among Chicago traders that a strong trend in the first day of the week is reversed on the second certainly gained traction in the soybean pit.
After strong gains in the last session, Chicago's July contract fell 0.8% to $15.20 a bushel as of 09:55 UK time (03:55 Chicago time) while the new crop November lot eased 1.4% to $13.06 a bushel.
And this despite the US Department of Agriculture overnight revealing continued planting hiccups in many states thanks to persistent rains, containing soybean sowings to 57% completion, up 13 points in a week, but behind the 74% of the crop typically in the ground by now.
That's equivalent to a delay of about 13m acres.
China signal
Certainly, there was some caution abroad in many financial markets, as investors ponder the significance, and mechanics, of the withdrawal of ultra-easy monetary policy which seems to be in the wings.
While Tokyo stocks soared 2.1%, that was largely down to a reversal in the yen, with Shanghai stocks closing down 1.2%, and Wall Street shares seen opening flat later on, nearly 3% below their record high set two weeks ago.
But, signally for Chicago soybeans, Chinese investors were negative too on soymeal, the feed ingredient from soybean processing, which has to a large extent been leading the soy complex higher.
"US soymeal export sales are running above the pace needed to meet the USDA forecast for 2012-13," Kim Rugel at Benson Quinn Commodities noted.
"This has some analysts revising US crush usage of soybeans, and tightening US soybean ending stocks despite slowing of soybean export sales and shipments."
Dalian dip
On the Dalian exchange, soymeal for January, now the best-traded contract, after soaring nearly 8% in four sessions, reversed 1.4% to 3,236 yuan a tonne.
As the top soybean?importer, and soymeal user,?Chinese soy markets are closely watched, but particularly when bird flu remains in the background as a threat to the poultry industry, and therefore to feed demand.
The impact in Chicago was to send July soymeal down 0.9% to $450.40 a short ton, with the December contract down 1.5% to $386.50 a short ton.
And that hurt soybeans too, which felt only light support from a US planting progress figure which, while behind the average pace, was within the realms of traders' expectations.
Profit-taking was in vogue instead, taking soybean prices down.
Selling was only encouraged by data late on Monday showing soybean exports from Brazil, America's main trade rival in the oilseed, soaring in May to a record 7.95m tonnes.
'Cautiously bearish'
The selling was felt in soyoil too, which dropped 0.7% to 48.34 cents a pound in Chicago for July delivery.
And in Kuala Lumpur, rival vegetable oil palm oil dropped 0.8% to 2,376 ringgit a tonne, with some lingering disappointment at data from cargo surveyors indicating a drop of more than 3% in Malaysian palm exports last month.
Furthermore, technically "this current rally is a relief rally", Phillip Futures proposed, forecasting that "crude palm oil prices will fall back towards 2,200 ringgit a tonne in time to come, unless the level 2,500 ringgit a tonne is broken on the upside".
"We remain cautiously bearish on crude palm oil," the Singapore-based broker said.
Spring wheat hiccups
With soybeans, which have been Chicago's rock of late, crumbling, there was little hope for gains in other Chicago crops, although Minneapolis spring wheat limited its losses to 0.1%, to $8.11 a bushel, for the September contract, helped by USDA data showing slow planting progress.
Indeed, farmers sowed only 1% of their spring wheat crop last week, taking the total to 80% completion, well behind the average of 90%.
In the top spring wheat state of North Dakota, only 64% of the crop was in the ground, behind the average of 89%.
Furthermore, the first condition rating of the season for the national crop came in at 64% seen as in "good" or "excellent" health, behind the 78% a year ago.
'Aggressive offers'
But for winter wheat, the condition rating improved one notch to 32% seen in good or excellent health (albeit well below the 52% a year ago) after rains boosted some drought-hit crops in the southern Plains.
Not that all the rainfall in the US has been welcome, with talk of some soft red winter wheat, as grown in the Midwest, suffering disease pressures.
The proportion of Illinois wheat rated good or excellent sank by 6 points, to 66%.
Furthermore, in parts of Europe, rain is proving excessive too, causing heavy flooding in the likes of the Czech Republic, although impact in terms of crop losses has yet to become clear.
As a comfort for bears, "aggressive offers from Black Sea exporters, at prices significantly cheaper than Australian and US origin, remains a headwind for prices", Luke Mathews at Commonwealth Bank of Australia noted.
Chicago wheat for July fell 1.1% to $7.01 a bushel.
'Driest-looking rainfall map'
In the corn pit, meanwhile, the July contract fell 0.8% to $6.50 a bushel, dragged lower by the weakness in the new crop December lot, which shed 1.7% to $5.50 a bushel.
While the USDA crop progress data showed farmers remaining behind in seedings after Midwest inundations last week, with 86% seeded as of Sunday compared with a typical 90%, there is the prospect of drier weather, particularly towards the end of the week.
The outlook for June 7-9 "may be that driest-looking rainfall map from the European model and we have seen over the past several weeks", WxRisk.com said.
And this when farmers appear willing to sow corn late, even after insurance deadlines, rather than switch to soybeans, because of what Benson Quinn Commodities called "economics favouring late corn planting".
Mixed cotton
In New York, the rally in cotton, which closed limit up for July delivery in the last session on bargain hunting, lost some steam as USDA data showed huge progress in sowing the fibre, with 23% of the crop seeded in a week.
That took total seedings to 82%, just 1 point behind average.
In the top growing state of Texas, farmers planted 29% of their crop, helped by the arrival of rains in eastern and southern areas, although what has emerged is not in great condition, with 28% rated in good or excellent health.
A year ago, the figure was more than 50%.
Cotton for July stood 1.4% higher at 83.48 cents a pound, recovering more ground lost in a nine-day losing streak, but the December lot eased 0.7% to 83.73 cents a pound.
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